Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Prediction, Odds & Lineups 2026

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Prediction, Team News & Lineups — Franz Beckenbauer Supercup 2026

By TipsPrediction | Published 22 August 2026

German football’s biggest rivalry kicks off the 2026/27 season tonight, with Borussia Dortmund hosting Bayern Munich in the Franz Beckenbauer Supercup — the traditional curtain-raiser that hands out the first piece of silverware of the year.

Match Details

Where to Watch

In Germany, the match is being shown live on free-to-air Sat.1 as well as Sky Sport (subscription required), with a free live stream also available via Joyn. Sat.1’s pre-match coverage starts at 19:30 CEST. Internationally, the fixture is being carried by regional broadcasters and streaming platforms including Prime Video in Spain, Belgium, and the US, with additional coverage via CazéTV in Brazil and Setanta Sports in Ukraine — availability depends on your region, so check your local listings closer to kickoff.

Weather Forecast

Conditions in Dortmund on matchday are set to be cool and unsettled: forecasts point to a high of around 19°C (66°F) and a low near 11°C (53°F), with roughly a 35% chance of rain through the evening. Nothing extreme, but a greasy surface at Signal Iduna Park wouldn’t be a surprise if the rain does arrive — worth factoring into any corners or cards markets.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

This will be the 10th Supercup meeting between these two sides, and history heavily favours the Bavarians: Bayern have won five of the previous nine editions, to Dortmund’s four. Their last Supercup meeting, back in 2021 (played behind reduced Covid-era crowds), ended 3-1 to Bayern, with a Robert Lewandowski brace doing the damage on his old stomping ground.

Zoom out to all competitive meetings and the picture is even more lopsided recently: across their last 15 fixtures since 2020, Bayern have won 11, Dortmund just 1, with 3 draws. Bayern won both Bundesliga meetings last season, most recently edging a 3-2 win at Signal Iduna Park in February 2026.

Current Form

Borussia Dortmund head into the new season on the back of a mixed pre-season and a genuinely inconsistent second half of last year. The club won three, drew one, and lost two of their six warm-up friendlies, including defeats to Arsenal and a 2-2 comeback draw with Roma in their final tune-up (Dortmund fought back from 2-0 down). More concerning for the longer view: Dortmund lost seven competitive matches since the turn of the year, including five defeats in their last 12 fixtures across all competitions. That said, there’s context to the numbers — Dortmund conceded 34 goals in the league last season, the joint-best defensive record in the entire Bundesliga.

Dortmund pre-season form (most recent 6): W – L – W – W – D – L (friendlies vs FC Tokyo, Cerezo Osaka, Arsenal, and others, concluding with the 2-2 draw against Roma)

Bayern Munich arrive as reigning double winners after an outstanding 2025/26 campaign: 28 wins from 34 Bundesliga games, a Bundesliga-record 122 goals scored, and just a single league defeat all season. They backed that up by beating Stuttgart in the DFB-Pokal final, only for their treble bid to end at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League semi-final. Their pre-season form has been excellent — five wins from six friendlies, including a 3-1 win over RB Leipzig and a 4-2 win over Heidenheim in their final warm-up.

Bayern pre-season form (most recent 6): L – W – W – W – W – W (one early defeat to lower-league opposition with a youth-heavy XI, before five straight wins)

Expected Goals (xG) & Attacking Data

Bayern’s underlying numbers from last season are the standout stat of this preview: 100.7 xG, the highest total in the Bundesliga, alongside 166 big chances created and an 18.7% shot-conversion rate — all league-leading figures. Dortmund’s attacking volume was lower across the season but still ranked among the division’s better units, built more around Serhou Guirassy’s finishing than sheer chance volume.

Team News

Borussia Dortmund are already dealing with a stretched defensive department. Centre-backs Nico Schlotterbeck and Emre Can remain long-term absentees, while midfielder Carney Chukwuemeka and forward Maximilian Beier are also expected to miss out. New arrival Giannis Konstantelias, who only completed his move from PAOK this week, is unlikely to start. Head coach Niko Kovac is expected to stick with a back-three system, most likely fielding Joane Gadou, Filippo Mane (or Waldemar Anton) and Ramy Bensebaini, with youngsters Konstantinos Karetsas and Samuele Inacio in line for full debuts in the final third.

Bayern Munich have their own significant absence to manage. Jamal Musiala will not be involved after suffering two on-pitch medical episodes in pre-season friendlies; the club has confirmed he’s being monitored for a neurological issue, and while described as not serious, he’s been held out as a precaution. Serge Gnabry and Lennart Karl are also ruled out, still working their way back from muscle injuries — leaving Kompany without his three most natural options to support the front line. New signing Ismael Saibari and youngster Tom Bischof are the likely beneficiaries, competing to fill the attacking-midfield role Musiala would otherwise occupy. On the plus side for Bayern, Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Dayot Upamecano are back in training following their World Cup commitments, though Kane may be eased in from the bench after being limited to short cameos in the final friendlies.

Predicted Lineups

Borussia Dortmund (likely 3-4-2-1): Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson; Karetsas, Inacio; Guirassy

Bayern Munich (likely 4-3-3): Neuer; Stanišić, Upamecano, Tah, Brown; Kimmich, Pavlović; Olise, Bischof, Luis Díaz; Kane

Tactical Analysis

Dortmund’s back-three setup under Kovac is built to absorb Bayern’s central overloads and spring Guirassy in behind — the same shape that dragged them back into the Roma friendly from two goals down. The key battle sits in midfield: Jobe Bellingham and Felix Nmecha have started Dortmund’s last three friendlies together and will need to win the physical battle against Bayern’s Kimmich-Pavlović axis to stop Bayern dictating tempo through the middle.

For Bayern, Musiala’s absence is the single biggest tactical wrinkle. Without their most creative central attacker, Kompany likely shifts Bischof or Saibari into a more restrained no. 10 role, leaning more heavily on width from Díaz and Olise to generate chances rather than through-the-middle combination play. If Kane starts from the bench as expected, Bayern may lack a focal point in the opening exchanges — an opportunity for Dortmund’s back three to start well before Bayern’s full firepower is introduced.

Expert Verdict & Score Prediction

Bayern arrive as clear favourites on the balance of squad quality, pre-season form, and recent head-to-head dominance — and the market broadly agrees, pricing them as strong favourites. But Dortmund are not without a route into this game: they have home advantage in front of a raucous Yellow Wall, the league’s joint-best defensive record from last season, and an opponent missing three attacking options including its most important creative player in Musiala.

Our prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Bayern Munich.

Expect Bayern’s superior squad depth to tell over 90 minutes, but don’t be surprised if Dortmund make this considerably more competitive than their recent head-to-head record suggests, particularly in the first half while Kane is still on the bench.

Value Betting Tips

• Both Teams to Score — Yes: 8 of the last 10 Bundesliga meetings between these sides produced BTTS, and both teams have attacking threats even with squads not at full strength.
• Over 2.5 Goals: Those same 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals per game — a pattern that’s held up in five of the last eight Supercup finals between these two clubs specifically.
• Dortmund Double Chance (1X): With Bayern missing key creative pieces and Dortmund defensively well-organised at home, insuring against a Dortmund win with the draw covered is a reasonable hedge against the highest-probability outcome (a Bayern win) rather than backing the outright upset.

As always: no prediction is guaranteed. These are analytical angles based on current form and data, not certainties — bet only what you can afford to lose.

Odds Comparison

Odds are indicative and sourced from multiple comparison sites as of matchday; prices move quickly pre-kickoff, so check your bookmaker for live odds before placing any bet.

FAQ

When is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich? Saturday, 22 August 2026, kicking off at 20:30 CEST (18:30 UTC) at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund.

What competition is this match part of? The Franz Beckenbauer Supercup, Germany’s traditional season-opening Super Cup between the Bundesliga champions (or runner-up, depending on Pokal outcomes) and the DFB-Pokal winner.

Why are Dortmund playing instead of Stuttgart? Bayern Munich won both the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal last season, completing the domestic double. Because the same club can’t play itself in the Supercup, the Bundesliga runner-up — Borussia Dortmund — takes the vacant slot instead of beaten Pokal finalists Stuttgart.

Is Jamal Musiala playing for Bayern Munich? No. Musiala has been left out of the squad as a precaution after two on-pitch medical episodes during pre-season friendlies, with the club managing a neurological issue.

Who is favourite to win? Bayern Munich are clear favourites with bookmakers, priced at around 1.61–1.65 (13/20), reflecting their recent head-to-head dominance and squad depth advantage.

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Article published 22 August 2026, based on the latest team news, form, and odds data available at time of writing. Team news and lineups can change up until kickoff — check back closer to the match for confirmed team sheets.